Welcome back to The Market Mosaic!
Today, I have something special in store for you.
I believe 2025 will be a pivotal year for investors…presenting many trading opportunities but with big risks along the way.
As I set out to curate the key charts that I believe will be most impactful for the stock market in the year ahead, I realized there was too much detail for a written report.
So today, I’ve summarized my thoughts for you in a video presenting my 2025 stock market and economic outlook.
If you want the TLDR version it’s this: buckle up for the year ahead.
A Year of Transitions
We’re coming off an exceptionally strong year for investors, confirming my consistently bullish bias.
With 2024 nearly complete, the S&P 500 is up 25%. Gold is up 27%, while Bitcoin gained 127%.
Crypto’s resurgence and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) were big investor themes. Nvidia (NVDA) soared 177% to a $3.4 trillion market valuation. Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy (MSTR) surged by 422%.
But there are reasons why I believe 2025 could hold even bigger and better opportunities in store…and with bigger risks along the way.
The economic picture remains strong for now, which can support the corporate earnings outlook and fuel more stock market gains over the coming year.
But there are growing risks ahead.
The federal debt level has swollen by $2.3 trillion just over the past year. Is this the year that investors finally care and revolt?
The 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly 100 basis points to 4.61% since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates. Industries sensitive to higher interest rates are showing signs of feeling the pinch.
There are also emerging signs of inflation’s resurgence. And that’s before promised tariffs hit next year.
I believe that 2025 will be defined by transitions. Dormant asset classes that went into hibernation a couple of years ago will be wakened by a shifting macroeconomic landscape.
If you don’t understand the transitions underway, then your portfolio is at risk of underperforming (or something worse).
How to Win in 2025
My 2025 outlook video is just a small sample of the key themes to watch heading into the New Year and what I believe is in store.
There are way more charts and topics than I can cover here today.
But as you should’ve come to expect by now, I’ll show up for you every week with The Market Mosaic.
Every Sunday, I’ll break down the catalysts impacting the economy and what it means for the stock market. I’ll keep showing you how to utilize breadth, sentiment, and other market technicals to gain an edge in predicting the market’s next move.
And if you’re ready for deeper market insights along with trade ideas to capitalize on opportunities, then be sure to check out my paid membership with the Traders Hub.
But the Hub is way more than just trade alerts.
My focus is on educating, including how to evaluate trade setups and create “asymmetry” by skewing return versus risk in your favor.
Understanding asymmetry will be the key to navigating the stock market over the next year. You do that by limiting the risk on your positions while being able to ride a trend.
Asymmetry is how to win in 2025.
If you’re interested in learning how we create asymmetry at the Hub, you can start a 7-day free trial using this link.
And be on the lookout for a special membership offer to the Traders Hub coming this week.
That’s all for today!
Disclaimer: these are not recommendations and just my thoughts and opinions…do your own due diligence! I may hold a position in the securities mentioned in this report.
Share this post