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Stock Market Update

A spike across consumer and producer inflation isn’t offsetting investor hopes for a lasting peace deal out of the Middle East. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 4.2% in May compared to last year while the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged higher by 6.5%. Both inflation measures are at the highest level since coming out of the pandemic-driven inflation wave (chart below). While there are hopes that a peace deal (once again) between the U.S. and Iran will help temper the energy-driven rise in inflation, there are signs that price pressures are spreading elsewhere. The supercore measure in the CPI looks at core services excluding shelter, which is a good way to proxy wage-driven inflation from service sectors. It jumped by 3.7% in May and has been inflecting higher in recent months.

While equity markets seemed to shrug off inflation fears and the impact to valuations and monetary policy, better economic data is giving the average stock a reason to rally. While some of the air is being released from the massive rally in AI infrastructure stocks, laggards off the late March lows are turning up recently. You can see that with measures of the average stock. The percent of stocks across the market trading above their 20-day moving average is diverging positively from the S&P 500 in the chart below. The dashed lines show that while the S&P 500 (blue line) is pulling back, the number of stocks in short-term uptrends (black line) is seeing improvement.

Broadening participation likely reflects recent improvement in labor market data and what that means for the earnings picture outside of the AI trade. The market activity and basing reset in many growth stocks could be setting up the next round of major breakouts. Keep reading to see:

• Open ETF positions.

• Open stock positions.

• Chart analysis for new trade ideas.

Read more

Today’s update will cover:

• Growing evidence the economy is heating up.

• Is the average stock about to catch the AI trade?

• A bullish pattern developing in the NYSE’s A/D line.

• Stron…

Read more

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Now for this week’s issue…

A blowout payrolls report for the month of May shows a resilient economy, but investors are choosing to focus on the implications for monetary policy.

The labor market added 172,000 jobs last month compared to expectations for 80,000. At the same time, prior months were revised even higher from an already strong pace of job creation. That brings the three month hiring average to 188,000 jobs (chart below).

The sharp inflection higher in payrolls growth comes at a time when forward earnings estimates are also moving higher. While that bodes well for the outlook for economic growth, it’s also the latest challenge to monetary policy.

The outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy has shifted in recent months due to inflation pressures stemming from supply chain upheaval, rising energy costs, and fiscal stimulus. The primary driver behind the most recent rate cuts was front-running any emerging weakness in the labor market.

But the May payrolls report continues a streak of exceptionally strong job growth and shows that concerns over labor market weakness is fading. With jobs and inflation running hot, market-implied odds are quickly repricing the outlook for rates.

Odds are pointing to a rate hike as soon as December, while the 2-year Treasury yield that tends to lead monetary policy jumped to 4.17%. That’s well above the current target for the fed funds rate and shows the bond market is pricing tighter monetary policy.

Stocks reacted to the jobs data and implications for rates by posting one of their worst decline this year. The S&P 500 fell by 2.6% while the Nasdaq dropped by 4.2% in a single session following the jobs data. While the major indexes remain positive on the year, it shows the sensitivity to valuations from interest rates.

This week, let’s look at building evidence that the labor market is seeing positive momentum and what the means for that earnings outlook. We’ll also look at the variables behind the stock market’s reaction and the historic surge in the S&P 500 since April.

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The Chart Report

The nonfarm payrolls report isn’t the only sign the labor market is holding up against geopolitical uncertainty. Initial jobless claims continue running near historically low levels while job openings are picking up as well. The monthly government JOLTS report tracks the number of job openings, which showed openings surging to 7.6 million jobs during April. That’s the highest level of openings in nearly two years. Positive data on the labor market is a positive reflection on the state of the economy and also bodes well for the earnings outlook. The chart below plots the rate of change in job openings against the growth rate in S&P 500 earnings.

Evidence of solid economic activity is helping the average stock catch up to the gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The chart below plots the NYSE cumulative advance/decline line and is a way to track the average stock. The A/D line has been lagging cap-weighted indexes in breaking out to new highs, which showed breadth on the rally from late March narrowing. But the A/D line is filling out a pattern that could see the average stock breakout. Since late March, the A/D line is creating an ascending triangle patten with recent pullbacks growing smaller. A breakout from the pattern should translate to relative strength across the average stock and finally see the A/D line confirm the rally in the major cap-weighted indexes.

While fears are easing over the state of the labor market, inflations concerns remain elevated. In addition to the payrolls report, last week features updates on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the economy. While those reports continue showing growth, the prices paid components keep pointing to rising inflation. Surveys on manufacturing and service sector activity from the ISM saw growth accelerate in May compared to April while leading indicators of activity jumped as well. The new orders component of the manufacturing survey was reported at 56.8 while services jumped to 57.3. The surveys are constructed so that a reading above 50 indicates expansion. But in the services report, the pries index rose to 71.3 and is the highest level since August 2022. The prices index tends to lead changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the chart below.

Rising inflation impacts equity valuations through the impact on interest rates. Higher rates present competition for investor capital and also decreases the present value of future expected corporate profits. Stocks could be especially vulnerable to rising rates as some measures of valuations are near the most expensive levels ever seen. That includes the S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE). The CAPE ratio compares the current level of the S&P to a 10-year average of earnings to smooth out the business cycle. The CAPE ratio currently stands at 42.5 and has only been higher during the internet bubble in the late 1990s.

The S&P 500 is coming off a historic two-month return with the index gaining over 16% in April and May. Since the second World War, there’s only been four other instances where the S&P has seen a two-month stretch rivaling that return. During those prior instances, a strong two-month stretch happened when the economy was coming out of recession and stocks were in the early stages of a rally. Another occasion happened ahead of 1987’s stock market crash. With recent narrow breadth and the outlook for monetary policy quickly becoming more hawkish, investors should stay mindful of the bearish outcome in the months ahead.

Heard in the Hub

The Traders Hub features live trade alerts, market update videos, and other educational content for members.

Here’s a quick recap of recent alerts, market updates, and educational posts:

• Investor positioning shows there’s room to run.

• Valuations compressing as earnings growth surges.

• Breadth and investor sentiment supporting recent gains.

• A jump in earnings is another warning on the rate outlook.

• A pharmaceutical stock trading tight in a base-on-base setup.

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Trade Idea

Ondas (ONDS)

Drone stock that peaked at the $15 level in January and now making a new basing pattern. A recent smaller pullback off $15 taking shape which needs to reset the MACD above the zero line. I’m watching for a move over $15.

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And if you have any questions or feedback, feel free to shoot me an email at mosaicassetco@gmail.com

Disclaimer: these are not recommendations and just my thoughts and opinions…do your own due diligence! I may hold a position in the securities mentioned in this report.

These ideas are the end result of my process to identify stocks offering the right combination of growth fundamentals along with a proper chart setup. Live alerts are sent to Traders Hub members only.

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Stock Market Update

A batch of better than expected economic reports is setting up a highly anticipated May payrolls report. Updated surveys on manufacturing and service sector activity from the ISM saw growth accelerate in May compared to April while leading indicators of activity jumped as well. The new orders component of the manufacturing survey was reported at 56.8 while services jumped to 57.3. The surveys are constructed so that a reading above 50 indicates expansion. This week also saw an updated JOLTS report covering the month of April, which showed job openings surging to 7.6 million jobs during the month and is the highest level of openings in nearly two years. The jump in job openings is another confirming indicator on the earnings outlook, where the rate of change closely tracks corporate profits (chart below).

While business surveys and job openings is another tailwind for the earnings outlook, the data is putting more pressure on the Federal Reserve and its policy stance. In the same ISM surveys, measures of prices paid remain near extremely elevated levels which tends to lead inflation. If the payrolls report for the month of May confirms underlying strength in the economy and labor market, the outlook for monetary policy will grow more uncertain given the recent jump in consumer and producer inflation. At the same time, evidence of solid economic activity is helping the average stock catch up to the gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The chart below plots the NYSE cumulative advance/decline line and is a way to track the average stock. The A/D line has been lagging cap-weighted indexes in breaking out to new highs, but is closing in on new high ground.

More constructive action in the average stock as evidenced by the A/D line is creating more trade setups to add to the watchlist. Current open positions in high growth themes continue to hold above key moving averages, so we’ll keep trailing those holdings. Keep reading to see:

• Open ETF positions.

• Open stock positions.

• Chart analysis for new trade ideas.

Read more

If you find this report helpful please hit that “like” button, share this post, and become a subscriber if you haven’t already done so!

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Now for this week’s issue…

While President Trump isn’t in a hurry to approve terms of a deal, hopes of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could potentially see the strait of Hormuz reopened to tanker traffic.

The prospect of a return to normal in a key producing regions sent oil prices to their worst month since 2020 with an 20% decline (chart below). The drop in energy prices is also having spillover effects to rate markets.

The 30-year treasury yield has pulled back below 5%, making the recent move look like a false breakout. The pullback in oil and interest rates is helping drive the S&P 500 to new heights.

But the most recent report on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge contains a warning. Within the the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for April, the core goods figure that excludes food and energy rose by 2.8% and is one of the biggest increases in decades outside of the pandemic aftermath.

That shows underlying inflation has been a growing issue even before the spike in energy prices, and likely reflects supply chain upheaval from last year’s trade war. That’s keeping the outlook for monetary policy in question.

At the same time, inflation is pushing toward levels that have historically had a significant impact on stock market valuations, while market-implied inflation over the next 10 years is also hitting levels that have presented headwinds for the S&P 500.

This week, let’s look at inflation pressures stemming from more than just the jump in energy prices. We’ll also look at a couple ways that rising inflation could pressure stock prices and the key levels to watch, and why equity valuations are making stocks particularly vulnerable.

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The Chart Report

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index - was released for the month of April. The headline figure jumped by 3.8% compared to last year while the core figure that excludes food and energy prices rose by 3.3%. For investors hoping that the boost in inflation could be temporary from the jump in energy prices, the report contained bad news. The core goods figure that excludes food and energy rose by 2.8% and is one of the biggest increases in decades outside of the pandemic aftermath (chart below). That shows underlying inflation has been a growing issue even before the spike in energy prices, and likely reflects supply chain upheaval from last year’s trade war.

The major stock indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue grinding higher despite rising inflation and the impact on interest rates across the yield curve and outlook for monetary policy. But market-based inflation expectations and the impact on interest rates is nearing levels that have posed issues for stock prices in the past. The chart below plots the S&P 500 (black line) along with the 10-year inflation breakeven rate (orange line). A push toward the 2.5% level on the 10-year inflation breakeven has pressured the S&P 500 over the past few years, and is nearing that level once again.

If inflation keeps accelerating further in the months ahead, that could add significant pressure to stock valuations. High inflation tends to lead to high interest rates, which makes the present value of future corporate profits worth less in present value terms. The chart below shows the average S&P 500 P/E ratio under different inflation regimes going back to 1980. You can see that average valuations start taking a big hit as inflation moves above 4%. With headline consumer inflation running over 3%, potential acceleration in the months ahead could have a major impact on valuations.

Rising inflation impacts equity valuations through the impact on interest rates. Higher rates present competition for investor capital and also decreases the present value of future expected corporate profits. Stocks could be especially vulnerable to rising rates as some measures of valuations are near the most expensive levels ever seen. That includes the S&P 500’s cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE). The CAPE ratio compares the current level of the S&P to a 10-year average of earnings to smooth out the business cycle. The CAPE ratio currently stands at 42.5 and has only been higher during the internet bubble in the late 1990s.

Heard in the Hub

The Traders Hub features live trade alerts, market update videos, and other educational content for members.

Here’s a quick recap of recent alerts, market updates, and educational posts:

• Investor positioning shows there’s room to run.

• Valuations compressing as earnings growth surges.

• Breadth and investor sentiment supporting recent gains.

• A jump in earnings is another warning on the rate outlook.

• A pharmaceutical stock trading tight in a base-on-base setup.

You can follow everything we’re trading and tracking by becoming a member of the Traders Hub.

By becoming a member, you will unlock all market updates and trade alerts reserved exclusively for members.

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Trade Idea

Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Setting up a new base right at the important $100 level. The stock is making a smaller pullback following a rally to test resistance, which reset the MACD near the zero line. I’m watching for a move over $100.

Key Upcoming Data

Economic Reports

Earnings Reports

I hope you’ve enjoyed The Market Mosaic, and please share this report with your family, friends, coworkers…or anyone that would benefit from an objective look at the stock market.

Share

Become a member of the Traders Hub to unlock access to:

✅Model Portfolio

✅Members Only Chat

✅Trade Ideas & Live Alerts

✅Mosaic Vision Market Updates + More

Our model portfolio is built using a “core and explore” approach, including a Stock Trading Portfolio and ETF Investment Portfolio.

Come join us over at the Hub as we seek to capitalize on stocks and ETFs that are breaking out!

Subscribe now

And if you have any questions or feedback, feel free to shoot me an email at mosaicassetco@gmail.com

Disclaimer: these are not recommendations and just my thoughts and opinions…do your own due diligence! I may hold a position in the securities mentioned in this report.

These ideas are the end result of my process to identify stocks offering the right combination of growth fundamentals along with a proper chart setup. Live alerts are sent to Traders Hub members only.

Subscribe now

Stock Market Update

The narrative driving the stock market has hardly changed in recent weeks. Optimism around a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran helps to spark a rally in the major indexes. For the most part, there has been very little substance behind the headlines, but that hasn’t stopped the rally in stocks linked to the AI infrastructure buildout. At the same time, challenges to the inflation outlook continue building. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index - was released for the month of April. The headline figure jumped by 3.8% compared to last year while the core figure that excludes food and energy prices rose by 3.3%. For investors hoping that the boost in inflation could be temporary from the jump in energy prices, the report contained bad news. The core goods figure that excludes food and energy rose by 2.8% and is one of the biggest increases in decades outside of the pandemic aftermath.

That shows underlying inflation has been a growing issue even before the spike in energy prices, and likely reflects supply chain upheaval from last year’s trade war. The major stock indexes continue grinding higher despite rising inflation and the impact on interest rates across the yield curve and outlook for monetary policy. But market-based inflation expectations are nearing levels that have posed issues for stock prices in the past. The chart below plots the S&P 500 along with the 10-year inflation breakeven rate. A push toward the 2.5% level on inflation breakevens has pressured the S&P 500 over the past few years, and is nearing that level once again.

Since last week, there’s been an improvement in the rally’s participation as short-term breadth turns higher from an oversold level. An increase in bearish investor sentiment has been a tailwind as well. While it’s been difficult finding new setups offering low risk entry points, open positions continue working higher while respecting key moving averages. Keep reading to see:

• Open ETF positions.

• Open stock positions.

• Chart analysis for new trade ideas.

Read more

Today’s update will cover:

• Investor positioning shows there’s room to run.

• Valuations compressing as earnings growth surges.

• Breadth and investor sentiment supporting recent gain…

Read more

If you find this report helpful please hit that “like” button, share this post, and become a subscriber if you haven’t already done so!

🚨And be sure to check out Mosaic Traders Hub. It’s a members-only platform to alert trade ideas, track a model portfolio of open positions, and further analyze the message coming from the capital markets.

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Now for this week’s issue…

Developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East remain fluid while a new chairman takes the helm of the most important economic institution in the world.

Speculation over a lasting peace deal between the U.S. and Iran made headlines several times last week with little substance. But the best chance appears to be developing this weekend as a ceasefire looks to be extended and a framework for a deal is reportedly growing closer.

While headlines coming out of the Middle East are leading to a quick burst of volatility, a much bigger catalyst for investors is evolving. Just as Kevin Warsh becomes the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, key members on the the Fed’s Board of Governors are growing more hawkish.

In a speech last week, Christopher Waller stated that “inflation is not moving in the right direction” and can “no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road”. Waller previously was a leading proponent for cutting rates on labor market concerns.

That’s contributing to a jump in volatility across interest rates. The 30-year Treasury yield is holding onto a breakout above 5% and hit the highest level in nearly 20 years. Market-implied probabilities now point to a rate hike as soon as December.

Following a steady decline over the past couple years, a measure of bond market volatility hit a low in late January and is turning higher as you can see in the chart below plotting the MOVE index that tracks volatility in Treasury securities.

Indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are holding near record highs as concentration in mega-cap stocks linked to the AI infrastructure buildout remain buoyant. But elsewhere in the market, the average stock is reflecting the jump in inflation and impact on interest rates.

But bullish conditions are emerging with short-term breadth hitting oversold levels while investor sentiment turns more negative, with bearish views among retail investors jumping to the highest level since the market drawdown into late March.

This week, let’s look at developments with leading indicators of inflation and what it means for rising price levels. We’ll also look at the rebound in corporate earnings and how it could be another catalyst for higher interest rates. Finally, we’ll look at conditions across breadth and sentiment and how that can keep the rally intact.

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The Chart Report

Evidence continues building that a significant jump in inflation is underway. The most recent reports covering consumer and producer inflation showed prices jumping by the most in years. While investors and economists are hopeful that a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East will ease energy prices and translate to a temporary bump in inflation, various core measures of inflation excluding food and energy prices are turning higher as well. At the same time, leading indicators of inflation continue jumping higher. That includes the prices paid component of various business surveys covering the service and manufacturing sector of the economy. The chart below plots price components being incurred and passed along, where a reading above 50 indicates rising prices. Businesses are citing both supply chain constraints and impact of energy markets as key drivers behind the jump in prices.

While the economy faces growing uncertainty, that hasn’t slowed a sharp rise in corporate earnings. More recently, AI-driven capex and rise in energy prices that positively impacts producers are behind a rise in earnings estimates looking ahead. The chart below shows the growth in forward earnings for the S&P 500, which could also be a leading indicator for the path of monetary policy. The change in the short-term fed fuds rate is plotted as well (black line). You can see that forward earnings growth tends to change trend ahead of fed funds, where earnings growth reflects economic activity. A rebound in corporate earnings is another warning that tighter monetary policy could be lurking ahead.

While indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are holding near record highs as mega-cap stocks linked to AI drive upside, the average stock has been pulling back. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line has dropped sharply while the percent of stocks trading in short-term uptrends has fallen as well. The percent of stocks across major exchanges trading above their 20-day moving average fell to 33% recently, which is lowest level since the broader market selloff into late March (chart below). But that’s creating an oversold breadth condition, with the percent of stocks in short-term uptrends nearing levels that marked the end of past selloffs. After touching 33% a week ago, the average stock has been turning higher.

Even with the S&P 500 hovering near record highs, various measures of consumer and investor sentiment are turning more negative. The most recent AAII survey of retail investors showed bearish views jumping to 43.6%. That’s well above the long-term average of 31.0% and is the highest level of bears since coming off the correction into late March. Other measures of consumer sentiment are deteriorating as well, including the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. The index fell to a reading of 44.8 in the most recent update, which is the lowest level ever seen in the history of the report that goes back to the 1950s (chart below).

Heard in the Hub

The Traders Hub features live trade alerts, market update videos, and other educational content for members.

Here’s a quick recap of recent alerts, market updates, and educational posts:

• Are stocks due for an oversold bounce?

• The average is telling a different story than the index.

• A breakout that will have ripple effects across the market.

• This same condition appeared before the internet bubble popped.

• An energy stock showing relative strength trading near a key pivot.

You can follow everything we’re trading and tracking by becoming a member of the Traders Hub.

By becoming a member, you will unlock all market updates and trade alerts reserved exclusively for members.

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Trade Idea

Indivior Pharmaceuticals (INDV)

The stock is progressing through a new basing pattern since December. Recently attempting a move to new highs, but now making a smaller pullback that’s resetting the MACD at the zero line. I’m watching for a move over $40.

Key Upcoming Data

Economic Reports

Earnings Reports

I hope you’ve enjoyed The Market Mosaic, and please share this report with your family, friends, coworkers…or anyone that would benefit from an objective look at the stock market.

Share

Become a member of the Traders Hub to unlock access to:

✅Model Portfolio

✅Members Only Chat

✅Trade Ideas & Live Alerts

✅Mosaic Vision Market Updates + More

Our model portfolio is built using a “core and explore” approach, including a Stock Trading Portfolio and ETF Investment Portfolio.

Come join us over at the Hub as we seek to capitalize on stocks and ETFs that are breaking out!

Subscribe now

And if you have any questions or feedback, feel free to shoot me an email at mosaicassetco@gmail.com

Disclaimer: these are not recommendations and just my thoughts and opinions…do your own due diligence! I may hold a position in the securities mentioned in this report.

These ideas are the end result of my process to identify stocks offering the right combination of growth fundamentals along with a proper chart setup. Live alerts are sent to Traders Hub members only.

Subscribe now

Stock Market Update

While major market indexes like the S&P 500 appear to be grinding sideways in recent sessions, large moves are underway elsewhere as recent inflation reports drive volatility in interest rates across the yield curve. The 30-year Treasury yield is holding onto a breakout above the 5% level, which had been resistance for an ascending triangle pattern that’s been forming since late 2023 (chart below). At the same time, market-implied odds continuing pulling forward odds for a rate hike. The chances for a rate hike from the current fed funds range of 3.50-3.75% jumps to over 60% at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

Indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are holding near record highs as concentration in mega-cap stocks linked to the AI infrastructure buildout remain buoyant. But elsewhere in the market, the average stock is reflecting the jump in inflation and impact on interest rates. The NYSE cumulative advance/decline line is pulling back sharply while the percent of stocks trading in short-term uptrends drops as well. The percent of stocks across major exchanges trading above their 20-day moving average fell to 33% recently, which is lowest level since the broader market selloff into late March (chart below).

The average stock has been diverging negatively to the major indexes, which has been limiting breakout trading opportunities. But an oversold breadth condition is already forming, which is also being confirmed by the MACD applied to the stocks trading above their 20-day MA. That could help spark a rally at least in the near-term and see the average stock catch up. Keep reading to see:

• Open ETF positions.

• Open stock positions.

• Chart analysis for new trade ideas.

Read more

Today’s update will cover:

• Are stocks due for an oversold bounce?

• The average is telling a different story than the index.

• A breakout that will have ripple effects across the mar…

Read more

If you find this report helpful please hit that “like” button, share this post, and become a subscriber if you haven’t already done so!

🚨And be sure to check out Mosaic Traders Hub. It’s a members-only platform to alert trade ideas, track a model portfolio of open positions, and further analyze the message coming from the capital markets.

Subscribe now

Now for this week’s issue…

The impact on energy prices from the war in the Middle East is pushing inflation to its highest level in years.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.8% in April compared to last year, which is the largest gain in nearly three years. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tends to lead changes in the CPI, increased by 6.0% in April and was the largest gain since the end of 2022.

While a spike in energy prices are helping drive inflation higher, the most recent reports continue a trend of growing price pressures. The chart below plots the year-over-year change in CPI (green line) and PPI (blue line) for the past 10 years.

Investors initially shrugged off the inflation reports and sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs. But a quickly evolving outlook for monetary policy and jump in longer-dated yields was felt at the end of the week.

On Friday, the 30-year Treasury yield jumped above the 5% level which is the high tested several times over the past couple years. A sustained breakout could have serious implications at a time when federal debt and deficit spending is surging.

The rate outlook on the short-end of the yield curve is becoming more hawkish as well. Market-implied odds now favor a rate hike within the next six months. That comes as Kevin Warsh looks set to become the next Federal Reserve chairman, who is under intense political pressure to cut rates.

While the narrative of positive earnings revisions on soaring AI capex spending is helping drive the S&P 500 to a 17% gain since the end of March, the impact of rising rates on valuations and financial conditions could challenge the rally.

This week, let’s look at signs that inflation is becoming a bigger problem beyond an energy-drive gain in headline measures and why the next big inflation wave could be underway. We’ll also look at why equities struggle in rising inflation environments and the implications of a breakout in longer-dated interest rates.

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The Chart Report

Many investors and economists are hopeful that a resolution to the war in the Middle East means an energy-driven jump in inflation will be temporary. But other inflation measures show that pressure in key core categories that exclude food and energy prices are inflecting higher as well. The chart below shows several categories of core inflation. Core services ex-housing, which is also called supercore inflation, increased by 3.3% in April (light blue line in the chart below) and is the biggest gain since February 2025. Back in 2022, outgoing Fed chair Jerome Powell called supercore inflation “the most important category for thinking about future inflation down the road” since it tracks underlying price pressures in labor intensive industries.

Various inflation catalysts are coming together at the same time and share many similarities with the wave into mid-2022. Supply chain upheaval from the trade war, a spike in energy prices, and stimulus from federal deficit spending including the One Big Beautiful Bill are all impacting the economy at the same time. Back in 2022, you had supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, stimulus to support the economy, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that spiked oil prices. Consumer inflation is following another track, and that’s with the inflation cycle of the 1970s. The chart below compares CPI since 2014 (green line) with how CPI evolved from 1966 through 1982. If the cycle continues tracking, CPI is on the verge of another spike higher.

The stock market has been resilient despite numerous challenges facing the economy and war in the Middle East. Surging AI capex is helping drive positive earnings revisions, which is helping to boost indexes that are heavily weighted in AI-related stocks. But the impact of inflation on the stock market shouldn’t be ignored especially as various inflation gauges inflect higher. The chart below shows the percent of time historically that U.S. equity returns exceed the rate of inflation under different inflation regimes. You see that high and rising inflation tends to exert the biggest negative impact on stock returns, which is the regime the economy is currently facing.

Rising inflation is a headwind to equity returns due to the impact on interest rates across the yield curve. Higher inflation triggers a hawkish response from central banks that move to tighten monetary policy and push rates higher on the short-end. Yields on longer-dated bonds get pushed higher as well since fixed coupon payments lose their purchasing power faster when inflation is accelerating. Higher rates present competition for investor capital and drags down valuation multiples. While there’s a shift in market views toward potential Fed rate hikes, keep close watch on long-term yields as well. The 30-year Treasury yield is breaking out from an ascending triangle pattern going back to 2023. A sustained move above resistance at the 5% level would put the 30-year yield at the highest level since 2007.

Rising inflation and upward pressure on interest rates are happening at a time when the state of U.S. public finances are deteriorating. Even though the economy is expanding, federal deficit spending could top 6% of GDP this year. Cumulative budget deficits are projected to run around $24 trillion over the next decade. Against those projections, federal debt held by the public as a percent of GDP currently stands at 100% and is the highest level since coming out of World War II. Under current projections, debt to GDP is forecast to rise sharply and hit 175% in the next 30 years. A combination of rising inflation and concerns around the state of public finances could drive a burst of volatility in the bond market.

Heard in the Hub

The Traders Hub features live trade alerts, market update videos, and other educational content for members.

Here’s a quick recap of recent alerts, market updates, and educational posts:

• Inflation is more than an energy story.

• Forces coming together for the rate outlook.

• A hawkish (global) central bank pivot is underway.

• How this stock market bubble stacks up against history.

• Similarities to the internet bubble and what happens next.

You can follow everything we’re trading and tracking by becoming a member of the Traders Hub.

By becoming a member, you will unlock all market updates and trade alerts reserved exclusively for members.

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Trade Idea

YPF SA (YPF)

Forming a massive basing structure going back over a year and recently testing the high end of the range. A series of smaller pullbacks is underway since December with the stock forming a MACD hook. I’m watching for a move over $49.

Key Upcoming Data

Economic Reports

Earnings Reports

I hope you’ve enjoyed The Market Mosaic, and please share this report with your family, friends, coworkers…or anyone that would benefit from an objective look at the stock market.

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Become a member of the Traders Hub to unlock access to:

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Our model portfolio is built using a “core and explore” approach, including a Stock Trading Portfolio and ETF Investment Portfolio.

Come join us over at the Hub as we seek to capitalize on stocks and ETFs that are breaking out!

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And if you have any questions or feedback, feel free to shoot me an email at mosaicassetco@gmail.com

Disclaimer: these are not recommendations and just my thoughts and opinions…do your own due diligence! I may hold a position in the securities mentioned in this report.

These ideas are the end result of my process to identify stocks offering the right combination of growth fundamentals along with a proper chart setup. Live alerts are sent to Traders Hub members only.

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Stock Market Update

Investors are shrugging off a pair of hotter than expected inflation reports and pushing major indexes to fresh record highs. Headline producer and consumer inflation is surging higher, reflecting the jump in energy prices following the war in the Middle East. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.8% in April compared to last year, which is the largest gain in nearly three years. The Producer Price Index (PPI)), which tends to lead changes in the CPI, increased by 6.0% in April and was the largest gain since the end of 2022. The chart below plots the year-over-year change in CPI (green line) and PPI (blue line) for the past 10 years.

The prospect for another inflation wave is lining up with similarities to the surge in price levels into mid-2022. Disrupted supply chains from last year’s trade war, impact of war on energy markets, and stimulus via large federal budget deficits are coming together at the same time. That’s throwing the outlook for interest rates into question, where market-implied odds are now increasingly pricing rate hikes in the year ahead. At the same time, the 2-year Treasury yield that leads the short-term fed funds rate is at the highest level in a year and well above the Fed’s current upper target for fed funds (chart below). The bond market is signaling a pending shift in monetary policy at a time when central bank hawkishness is already on the rise.

The jump in inflation and shifting outlook for monetary policy isn’t slowing the rally. The S&P 500 continues surging higher and is currently up 18% from the late March low. One growing issue is that participation in the trend is lagging more recently, with just 44% of stocks across major exchanges trading above their 20-day moving average. While deteriorating breadth is a condition to monitor, we’ll keep trailing open positions utilizing moving averages and taking gains into strength. Keep reading to see:

• Open ETF positions.

• Open stock positions.

• Chart analysis for new trade ideas.

Read more

Today’s update will cover:

• Inflation is more than an energy story.

• Forces coming together for the rate outlook.

• A hawkish (global) central bank pivot is underway.

• How this stock m…

Read more

If you find this report helpful please hit that “like” button, share this post, and become a subscriber if you haven’t already done so!

🚨And be sure to check out Mosaic Traders Hub. It’s a members-only platform to alert trade ideas, track a model portfolio of open positions, and further analyze the message coming from the capital markets.

Subscribe now

Now for this week’s issue…

The S&P 500 notched it’s sixth consecutive week of gains following hopes for an end to the war in the Middle East coupled with economic optimism following the latest jobs report.

Investor hope grew as the U.S. and Iran appeared to be making progress toward a lasting peace deal that would also open the Strait of Hormuz and restore the flow of energy products.

While a peace deal has yet to materialize, investors received good news regarding economic data. The April payrolls report showed the economy added 115,000 jobs last month while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.

Along with the upwardly revised jobs report of 185,000 in March, payrolls showed the strongest two-month growth total since 2024 (chart below) and is helping to alleviate concerns over a stalling labor market.

The report should also further dash hopes for rate cuts any time soon, as recent acceleration in the labor market happens at the same time that inflation is creeping higher.

The narrative driving recent market action is centered around strong corporate earnings and positive forward revisions especially with companies leveraged to AI infrastructure capex.

But centrals banks around the world are slowly starting to pivot to tighter monetary policy, which could eventually weigh on equity prices. Rising interest rates on longer-dated yields are also calling valuations into question.

This week, let’s look at the bullish combination of positive earnings data and signs the economy is holding up. We’ll also look at how oil prices remain a key driver of market action, and a key threshold that could come back to bite the economy. Finally, there’s a subtle shift in central bank policy underway that could impact investors.

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The Chart Report

Signs of economic growth holding up against high oil prices is adding more fuel to the earnings outlook. Corporate earnings revisions have been a key driver of the rally since the lows in late March. The earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is expected to top 20% every quarter in 2026 compared to the same period a year ago. While there’s some concern that revisions are being driven only by stocks leverage to the AI capex spend, earning breadth is turning higher. The chart below shows the percent of S&P 500 industries with earnings estimates higher compared to 12 months ago and is at the highest level of this bull market cycle.

While earnings revisions are driving the price action in the major indexes in the background, developments on the war with Iran are dominating the headlines. The impact on energy markets is also having a heavy influence on the stock market due to the implications for inflation, interest rates, and cost inputs for various businesses. The movement in the S&P 500 over a shorter-term time frame has remained extremely negatively correlated to the movement in oil prices. The chart below shows the rolling 10-day correlation between the S&P 500 and oil, and is pushing near a perfect negative correlation. That shows developments in the Middle East and impact on oil prices should remain a key driver of the S&P 500 over the near-term.

Oil prices were trading just below $60 per barrel entering 2026, and jumped as high as $120 on an intraday basis following the war with Iran and impact on the Strait of Hormuz. The spike in oil prices is triggering thresholds historically associated with recessions. Higher oil can impact the economy through multiple avenues, including consumer spending, business profits, and the impact of inflation on monetary policy. In the past, a 50% upward deviation from oil’s price trend has triggered a recession that you can see in the chart below using data back to the 1970s.

The jump in oil prices is becoming more apparent in recent headline inflation reports while leading inflation indicators like the prices paid component of various business surveys warn of higher levels ahead. That comes at a time when central banks around the world are slowly shifting toward a tightening bias. The chart below plots the percentage of central banks around the world that are cutting rates (blue line) versus hiking rates (red line). A growing percentage of banks easing policy coincided with the cyclical bull market that started in late 2022. That trend is slowly being reversed and could quicken given the inflation outlook.

The prospect of rising interest rates on the short- and long-end of the yield curve could pose a challenge to stock market valuations. The easing bias in central banks around the world is shifting to a more hawkish stance. At the same time, the steady climb in longer-dated yields back toward the highs of the past several years is putting Treasury yields above the earnings yield for the S&P 500. The chart below plots the spread between the earnings yield and 10-year Treasury, which is pushing further into negative territory. The earnings yield gap is usually positive, with current levels last seen coming out of the early 2000s dot-com bust.

Heard in the Hub

The Traders Hub features live trade alerts, market update videos, and other educational content for members.

Here’s a quick recap of recent alerts, market updates, and educational posts:

• The tug of war driving stock prices.

• More signs the next inflation wave is underway.

• A SpaceX IPO could deliver a boost to this stock.

• Why investors are taking comfort in the earnings outlook.

• How it’s our job to trade with the trend and ignore the noise.

You can follow everything we’re trading and tracking by becoming a member of the Traders Hub.

By becoming a member, you will unlock all market updates and trade alerts reserved exclusively for members.

Subscribe now

Trade Idea

Global X Uranium ETF (URA)

Uranium ETF that topped near $60 back in October and is now tightening in its basing pattern. A smaller pullback off the $60 level is resetting the MACD above the zero line. I’m watching for a breakout over $60.

Key Upcoming Data

Economic Reports

Earnings Reports

I hope you’ve enjoyed The Market Mosaic, and please share this report with your family, friends, coworkers…or anyone that would benefit from an objective look at the stock market.

Share

Become a member of the Traders Hub to unlock access to:

✅Model Portfolio

✅Members Only Chat

✅Trade Ideas & Live Alerts

✅Mosaic Vision Market Updates + More

Our model portfolio is built using a “core and explore” approach, including a Stock Trading Portfolio and ETF Investment Portfolio.

Come join us over at the Hub as we seek to capitalize on stocks and ETFs that are breaking out!

Subscribe now

And if you have any questions or feedback, feel free to shoot me an email at mosaicassetco@gmail.com

Disclaimer: these are not recommendations and just my thoughts and opinions…do your own due diligence! I may hold a position in the securities mentioned in this report.

These ideas are the end result of my process to identify stocks offering the right combination of growth fundamentals along with a proper chart setup. Live alerts are sent to Traders Hub members only.

Subscribe now

Stock Market Update

Major market indexes continue making new record highs on strong corporate earnings and forward revisions along with optimism that the war in the Middle East is nearing its end. The first quarter earnings surprise for the median stock in the S&P 500 is coming in at 6%, which is the best level in four years. While strong earnings from AI hyperscalers and data center capex fueling semiconductor stocks are a big driver, earnings revisions are broadening out to other capitalization ranges as well. You can see in the chart below that earnings revisions breadth is expanding in small-cap companies along with large-caps in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

While hope that the war in the Middle East in nearing an end, the impact on energy markets could linger while production is brought back online and the oil product supply chain normalizes. One estimate suggests that it will take two years for oil production to fully recover to pre-war levels. It’s also safe to assume that the geopolitical risk premium added to oil prices will remain much higher in the months ahead. The inflationary impact of high energy prices is altering the outlook for monetary policy at a time when central banks around the world have been slowly shifting to a tightening bias. The chart below plots the percentage of central banks whose last move was a rate cut (blue line) versus a rate hike (red line). Since mid-2025, the portion of banks hiking is slowly moving higher and could quicken given the inflation outlook.

The positive earnings momentum is the main catalyst driving stock prices at the moment. But it will be important to monitor the central bank narrative, and if investors start to perceive inflation as the bigger risk. For now, the market backdrop is constructive for trading breakouts with more chart setups developing. Keep reading to see:

• Open ETF positions.

• Open stock positions.

• Chart analysis for new trade ideas.

Read more

Today’s update will cover:

• The tug of war driving stock prices.

• More signs the next inflation wave is underway.

• A SpaceX IPO could deliver a boost to this stock.

• Why investors are…

Read more

If you find this report helpful please hit that “like” button, share this post, and become a subscriber if you haven’t already done so!

🚨And be sure to check out Mosaic Traders Hub. It’s a members-only platform to alert trade ideas, track a model portfolio of open positions, and further analyze the message coming from the capital markets.

Subscribe now

Now for this week’s issue…

High oil prices, the ongoing war with Iran, and growing hawkishness at the Federal Reserve couldn’t stop stocks from capping off strong gains in April.

A jump in inflation with the Fed’s preferred gauge followed the latest rate-setting meeting in which dissention among the Fed hit its highest level in over 30 years. Market-implied odds don’t point to any rate cuts until the end of 2027.

While uncertainty builds across the outlook for inflation and monetary policy, positive earnings revisions is sending stocks to record highs on one of the strongest monthly returns seen in recent years. The Nasdaq posted its best monthly gain in April since the recovery from the pandemic in 2020 (chart below).

Stocks capped off their fourth consecutive week of gains with indexes including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumping out to new high ground. Optimism over the earnings picture is playing a large role in the gains.

While earnings revisions are already moving higher, a report on economic activity is adding to bullish investor sentiment. The first quarter GDP report showed the economy growing at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the first quarter.

Although that missed estimates for growth of 2.3%, an important component of the report showed steady activity. Final sales to private domestic purchasers is a better gauge of underlying domestic demand, and expanded at a 2.5% annualized rate in the first quarter.

That’s inline with growth rates of the past few years. Investors are fixated on the positive messaging from earnings revisions and economic activity. But reports covering inflation and the rate outlook are growing risks to the bull market.

This week, let’s look at the growing problem with inflation and how its forcing a hawkish shift at the Fed. We’ll also look at source of inflation pressures beyond energy markets, and the key consumer inflation level that could impact stock valuations. Finally, we’ll unpack a key driver behind recent market gains and the outlook for the rest of 2026.

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The Chart Report

While investors are pushing stock indexes to new record highs on earnings optimism, there’s a growing inflation risk facing the stock market. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, increased by 3.5% in March compared to last year. That continues a recent trend of acceleration, with more recent annualized periods jumping sharply as well (chart below). That’s helping drive growing dissention at the Fed, where the latest rate-setting meeting saw the most dissenting votes since 1992. The primary reason for dissent was against language in the meeting statement indicating an easing bias. Leading indicators of the fed funds rate indicates that the Fed’s easing cycle is over for now.

Most headlines around inflation pressures focuses on the impact to energy markets following the U.S./Iran war and halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait typically saw about 20% of global oil product consumption flow through every day before the war. But there’s another looming inflationary impact, and that’s on food prices. The Middle East is a key producing region for ingredients used in nitrogen-based fertilizers, including urea where the region produces 45% of global supply. As you can see in the chart below, fertilizer exports through the Strait have also collapsed following the war. Fertilizer shortages could push up crop prices and impact yields as the spring planting season is underway.

If inflation does start accelerating further in the months ahead, that could add significant pressure to stock valuations. High inflation tends to lead to high interest rates, which makes the present value of future corporate profits worth less in present value terms. The chart below shows the average S&P 500 P/E ratio under different inflation regimes going back to 1980. You can see that average valuations start taking a big hit as inflation moves above 4%. With headline consumer inflation running over 3%, potential acceleration in the months ahead could have a major impact on valuations.

While dissent among the Fed’s rate-setting committee is growing, key indicators are already broadcasting a pivot on monetary policy is underway. Market-implied odds show the fed funds rate holding steady through the end of 2027. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tends to lead changes in fed funds, has recently jumped above the upper range of the current target. That shows the bond market is starting to price rate hikes instead of cuts. A survey of households on the rate outlook is quickly evolving as well. The chart below plots interest rate expectations from a consumer survey. The percent of respondents is rising quickly from a low level, which is a similar dynamic ahead of past tightening cycles.

A sharp jump in corporate earnings and the outlook for more growth is a key factor behind the move in the S&P 500 to record highs. Earnings revisions for 2026 have been steadily moving higher since the start of the year, which is a break from the traditional path of current year revisions that typically drifts lower. The first quarter growth rate in earnings is tracking around 27% following earnings from several of the “Mag 7” companies. If it holds, that would be the highest quarterly growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021. Looking ahead, current estimates point to about 20% or better year-over-year earnings growth for every quarter in 2026 (chart below).

Heard in the Hub

The Traders Hub features live trade alerts, market update videos, and other educational content for members.

Here’s a quick recap of recent alerts, market updates, and educational posts:

• The S&P 500 is following a familiar path.

• What’s fueling the stock market to record highs.

• The next commodity sector that could breakout.

• A huge risk from the Iran war…and it’s not energy.

• How the outlook for AI productivity is feeding the earnings outlook.

You can follow everything we’re trading and tracking by becoming a member of the Traders Hub.

By becoming a member, you will unlock all market updates and trade alerts reserved exclusively for members.

Subscribe now

Trade Idea

Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB)

The stock peaked near the psychologically important $100 level in January and is recently testing that level again. A smaller pullback is underway that’s resetting the MACD above zero. I’m watching for a move over $100.

Key Upcoming Data

Economic Reports

Earnings Reports

I hope you’ve enjoyed The Market Mosaic, and please share this report with your family, friends, coworkers…or anyone that would benefit from an objective look at the stock market.

Share

Become a member of the Traders Hub to unlock access to:

✅Model Portfolio

✅Members Only Chat

✅Trade Ideas & Live Alerts

✅Mosaic Vision Market Updates + More

Our model portfolio is built using a “core and explore” approach, including a Stock Trading Portfolio and ETF Investment Portfolio.

Come join us over at the Hub as we seek to capitalize on stocks and ETFs that are breaking out!

Subscribe now

And if you have any questions or feedback, feel free to shoot me an email at mosaicassetco@gmail.com

Disclaimer: these are not recommendations and just my thoughts and opinions…do your own due diligence! I may hold a position in the securities mentioned in this report.

These ideas are the end result of my process to identify stocks offering the right combination of growth fundamentals along with a proper chart setup. Live alerts are sent to Traders Hub members only.

Subscribe now

Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 is hovering just below record highs as massive catalysts get underway. This week features the final Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting that will be chaired by Jerome Powell, who looks set to be replaced by Kevin Warsh following a key procedural vote in the Senate. While the Fed held rates steady as widely expected, the meeting statement saw the most dissenters since 1992 with most against language indicating an easing bias. The central bank is becoming more divided on the appropriate path of monetary policy, and Warsh will take control in the face of rising inflation pressures from commodities. Core measures of inflation that exclude food and energy prices haven’t been below the Fed’s 2% target in over five years. Market implied odds don’t show any movement on the fed funds rate until the end of 2027 (chart below).

If anything, the inflation picture could get worse as gas prices top a national average of $4.00 per gallon while President Trump looks set to extend the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in order to extract concessions from Iran on a potential peace deal. The blockade means that tanker traffic through the Strait will remain limited, cutting off 20% of the world’s daily oil product consumption. But the impact extends beyond energy markets, with the Middle East accounting for around 45% of urea production used in nitrogen-based farm fertilizers. Tanker traffic carrying fertilizer has ground to a halt as well (chart below), which could place upward pressure on food prices from higher fertilizer costs as well as the impact on crop yields from fertilizer shortages.

Investors will also have to contend with earnings reports from several AI hyperscalers, where optimism over AI infrastructure spending is playing a key role in positive earnings revisions. There are plenty of catalysts to drive volatility in either direction over the near-term, which is why it’s key to remain disciplined to identify proper chart setups among fundamentally strong companies.

Keep reading to see:

• Open ETF positions.

• Open stock positions.

• Chart analysis for new trade ideas.

Read more

Today’s update will cover:

• The S&P 500 is following a familiar path.

• What’s fueling the stock market to record highs.

• The next commodity sector that could breakout.

• A huge risk fr…

Read more

If you find this report helpful please hit that “like” button, share this post, and become a subscriber if you haven’t already done so!

🚨And be sure to check out Mosaic Traders Hub. It’s a members-only platform to alert trade ideas, track a model portfolio of open positions, and further analyze the message coming from the capital markets.

Subscribe now

Now for this week’s issue…

Uncertainty continues to hang over the Middle East as the U.S. and Iran have yet to announce any major breakthrough in peace talks. At the same time, the flow of energy products flowing through the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled.

Investors also have to contend with a pending leadership change at the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh, who is the nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, answered questions at his confirmation hearing before the Senate this week.

Warsh pledged to change the way the central bank communicates with the public, while dodging questions on the path of interest rates. The path to chair the Fed also became clearer following a decision by the Department of Justice to drop its investigation into Powell.

Despite the uncertain outlook for energy-driven inflation and monetary policy, investors are rushing back into the stock market. The S&P 500 is holding near record highs over the 7,100 level (chart below).

Semiconductor stocks in particular are leading the way higher, with an ETF tracking the sector posting 18 daily consecutive gains in a row. Intel’s stock had it single best daily gain since 1987 and jumped past the dot-com peak in 2000.

With the S&P back to making record highs, extended market valuations are a cause for concern. But forward earnings estimates are surging higher, providing a key catalyst to keep the rally intact for now.

This week, let’s look at the unusual move in earnings estimates looking ahead and why that’s becoming an important driver of the rally. We’ll also look at an alternative asset allocation portfolio having a banner year and why a big test could be waiting for Warsh.

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The Chart Report

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq back at record highs, that means valuations remain stretched above historical averages and that earnings growth will be critical to support gains in the indexes going forward. While there is significant uncertainty from the ongoing war in the Middle East and surging energy prices, forward earnings estimates are doing something peculiar. Earnings revisions for 2026 are now up approximately 4% since the start of the year (green line in the chart below), which compares to the typical revision that drifts lower based on historical data. With the first quarter reporting season about to pick up, it will be crucial to monitor forward earnings estimates for any changes in trend since the start of the year.

While the surge in the S&P 500 is catching many investors by surprise, the index is following a familiar path following geopolitical conflict. The chart below plots the performance of the S&P leading up to major geopolitical events and the forward returns following conflict. A drawdown just after the emergence of a conflict is typically resolved quickly to the upside. The blue line shows the current path for the S&P following the Iran war, with the index closely tracking historical precedent.

The recovery in the S&P 500 and surge in commodity prices is sending one asset allocation model to its best return since 1933. A “permanent portfolio” consisting of an equal allocation to stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash is currently tracking an annualized gain of 26% this year (chart below). The synchronized rally across various assets classes along with relatively high rates across the yield curve is delivering a boost to the alternative asset allocation, which is having its third best ever relative performance to the traditional 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds.

Kevin Warsh was on Capitol Hill for confirmation hearings as part of his nomination to be the next Fed chair. But a major obstacle in his way to the position resided with the Department of Justice and their ongoing investigation into current chair Jerome Powell. But news broke this week that the investigation will be dropped, which clears the way for Warsh to take control. New Fed chairs have a history of being greeted with market volatility. The chart below shows maximum drawdowns for periods following new Fed chairs taking office. The average drawdown is 20% during the year following a new Fed chair.

Heard in the Hub

The Traders Hub features live trade alerts, market update videos, and other educational content for members.

Here’s a quick recap of recent alerts, market updates, and educational posts:

• The easy money rally has run its course.

• The median S&P 500 stock remains in correction.

• How to use liquidity to evaluate trading environments.

• The price action in Bitcoin is a warning on the outlook.

• The fundamental metrics favoring this energy stock setup.

You can follow everything we’re trading and tracking by becoming a member of the Traders Hub.

By becoming a member, you will unlock all market updates and trade alerts reserved exclusively for members.

Subscribe now

Trade Idea

YPF SA (YPF)

Massive basing structure going back over a year and recently testing the high end of the range. Series of smaller pullbacks underway since December with the stock forming a MACD hook. I’m watching for a move over $49.

Key Upcoming Data

Economic Reports

Earnings Reports

I hope you’ve enjoyed The Market Mosaic, and please share this report with your family, friends, coworkers…or anyone that would benefit from an objective look at the stock market.

Share

Become a member of the Traders Hub to unlock access to:

✅Model Portfolio

✅Members Only Chat

✅Trade Ideas & Live Alerts

✅Mosaic Vision Market Updates + More

Our model portfolio is built using a “core and explore” approach, including a Stock Trading Portfolio and ETF Investment Portfolio.

Come join us over at the Hub as we seek to capitalize on stocks and ETFs that are breaking out!

Subscribe now

And if you have any questions or feedback, feel free to shoot me an email at mosaicassetco@gmail.com

Disclaimer: these are not recommendations and just my thoughts and opinions…do your own due diligence! I may hold a position in the securities mentioned in this report.